Tickets went on sale for No time to die this morning, including early (October 6 around 7 p.m.) in the IMAX and Cinemark XD auditoriums. The unofficial (but trustworthy) follow-up has popped up here and there, with a suggestion that the fifth and final James Bond film starring Daniel Craig might find an opening closer to Spectrum ($ 70 million in November 2015) and Quantum of Consolation ($ 67 million in November 2008) than Fall from the sky ($ 90 million in November 2012). Meanwhile, we are two weeks away from the national debut of Venom: let there be carnage, with the sequel from Sony hoping to mark something approximate to the first VenomThe domestic debut of $ 80 million and $ 214 million in domestic revenue in October 2018. As the two tents in early October clash, it’s a battle Daniel Craig and Tom Hardy can both win.
The case for Let there be carnage:
The Tom Hardy / Woody Harrelson action fantasy film was slated to open on September 24, officially serving as the launch film for the tentpole season after the summer. He panicked after The suicide squad and moved to October 15 before realizing the error of his ways after Shang-Chi and return to October 1. Ambitious projections for the Venom the first weekend of the sequel is around $ 65 million. That could change one way or another, but it should be noted that a Venom The sequel was never guaranteed to play on a par with its predecessor. Even if the general public especially appreciated Venom (Critical beards aside, it ends well and leaves you wanting more), but there was always a chance this could be a case of “people were only curious the first time” franchise building. Big debut films based on long-awaited big-name characters run the risk of the first film being received as a sequel.
Venom outperformed even optimistic expectations, earning $ 214 million domestic and ridiculous $ 269 million in China alone (still the second best solo superhero behind Aquaman) to earn $ 854 million worldwide on a budget of $ 90 million. If it’s budgeted like Sony’s Jumanji suites (Welcome to the jungle cost 90 million dollars while The next level cost $ 120 million), then (speculation alert) Let there be carnage cost closer to $ 125 million than to $ 175 million. Then yes, Venom 2 can afford to take a big drop from its predecessor, maybe even earn what we expected the first time around (which we saw with comedic sequels like Ted 2 in 2015 and Neighbors 2 in 2016). For example, a The Secret Life of Pets 2– a decrease in size (from $ 368 million national / $ 875 million worldwide to $ 160 million / $ 430 million) would still give Venom 2 $ 93 million domestic and $ 420 million worldwide.
The caveat is that A) we don’t know for sure if it will play, and to what extent it could play, in China and B) the domestic market appears to be more predictable than the overseas one. Yet short for F9, Free Guy, Shang-Chi and A quiet place part II imply that the films audiences really want to see play at the domestic box office pretty much “as usual”. Unless the reviews are exceedingly bad (because it’s “the movie is bad, it’s not funny, your kids will be bored and there are very few Venom / Carnage scenes”), Venom: let there be carnage can play nationally pretty close to what he might have played had he opened without-Covid in October 2020. Just because Deadpool 2 performed almost in the same way as dead Pool ($ 324 million in 2018 compared to $ 363 million in 2016) does not mean Venom 2 a similar path is guaranteed.
The case for No time to die
So if Andy Serkis Venom 2 hits pay sale, is by Cary Fukunaga No time to die in trouble? Not automatically. All that is close to Spectrumlevel of activity ($ 200 million worldwide from a $ 70 million opening weekend just off The Hunger Games: Mockingjay part II and Star Wars: The Force Awakens) would be a huge success for MGM. Moreover, once adjusted for inflation, Spectrumthe gross $ 200 million (adjusted $ 210 million) is quite close to Quantum of Consolation ($ 168 million / $ 214 million) and Casino Royale ($ 167 million / $ 232 million). Although possible, we shouldn’t expect another James Bond film to come out anymore. Fall from the skylevel of activity ($ 304 million in 2012, the third biggest “tickets sold” movie 007 behind only The golden finger and Thunder clap) that we would wait for a future Fast Furious hit movie furious 7 ($ 353 million) at the domestic box office. I wouldn’t expect Star Wars: Rogue Squadron to hit the force awakens– level of fat either.
In addition, 007 often shone in the face of brutal competition. Even going back to Pierce Brosnan’s beginnings in Golden eye in November 1995, it opened a week after Jim Carrey targeted children Ace Ventura: when nature calls set a new record for a non-summer opening weekend with $ 38 million. Golden eye set a franchise record 007 (nearly tripling Timothy Dalton’s $ 11 million debut Daylights alive in 1987) with a start of $ 26 million. The James Bond relaunch and the Ace Ventura sequel both ended with around $ 108 million domestically. Tomorrow never dies open next door Titanic in December 1997, amounting to $ 125 million Titanic sailed at $ 600 million. Daniel Craig’s Casino Royale never broke the weekend box office and placed second in its first three weekends against happy feet yet still managed a start of $ 40 million and a cume of $ 168 million.
The 007 series flourished even as the definition of “What is a successful franchise?” has changed so much in the past 25 years. That is why Fall from the sky topped $ 1.1 billion a month ago The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey topped $ 1 billion at the end of 2012. It has been successful alongside companies like Ace Ventura, Toy Story, Harry Potter and Star wars standing out from the bunch as a non-fantasy super-duper action franchise tent for adults, and especially indifferent moviegoers (or more wanting alongside the) big movies about superheroes, wizards, robots and related fantastic heroic journeys. He hasn’t always been the king of the box office mountain, but he’s always stood alongside an evolving industry. As such, if it delivers the 007 tropes (the pomp, places, gadgets, action, sex and violence PG-13, etc.), No time to die should stand alongside his tent pole competition.
Venom: let there be carnage and No time to die are both character-centric franchise sequels that audiences have already enjoyed. It’s not as easy as saying “my kids want to see Venom while my wife wants to see James Bond ”, but that’s a factor even with overlapping demographics. The biggest challenge, short of Covid-specific slowdowns (and recognizing Covid variables), is tempering expectations. A Venom 2 that “only” only wins what we expected from Venom can still be profitable. A No time to die which pays closer to Spectrum (or even Casino Royale) is not automatically a loss. If both films are well received and relatively successful, it will be a win due to the interest in franchises when the storm dissipates. Hopefully, the two expected sequels work well enough next to each other for their respective franchises to continue, well, die another day.