Photo credits: Warner Bros. & Greig Fraser (“Dune”)

Our preview of October’s busy slate continues this week with a preliminary forecast and analysis on Denis Villeneuve’s long-awaited adaptation of Dune, which is scheduled for hybrid release on October 22.

That same weekend will also see the release of Disney and 20th Century Studios’ Ron went wrong in a 45-day theatrical window, along with Searchlight Pictures and filmmaker Wes Anderson The French dispatch in what should be a limited version.

Current predictions and updates for these and other upcoming films can be found in the table below.

Dune
Warner Bros. Pictures / Legendary

ADVANTAGES:

  • The original sci-fi novel by author Frank Herbert, winner of the Hugo Prize in 1966, has long been a staple among fans of the genre. It is often said that the construction of the world and the depth of history are inspired by the works of JRR Tolkien (The Lord of the Rings) while playing an influential role in George RR Martin A song of ice and fire series (Game Of Thrones).
  • A reimagining of this franchise has long been requested by die-hard fans after several attempts to bring it to life with varying results, including a 1984 David Lynch film and several TV mini-series. With over 56 million trailer views on the studio’s official YouTube page, Villeneuve’s Dune garnered great interest from fans after the project took years to get started.

    Early follow-up markers are comparable to those of Godzilla vs. Kong, War for the Planet of the Apes, and Blade Runner 2049.

  • A solid cast spearheaded by Timothée Chalamet, Oscar Isaac, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Jason Momoa, Zendaya, Javier Bardem and many more might spark the interest of a casual audience unfamiliar with the source material or the earlier movie. from 1984.
  • Denis Villeneuve’s creative involvement in this iteration has generated a lot of interest thanks to his widely acclaimed work on films such as Blade runner 2049, Arrival, Prisoners, Sicario, and Fires.
  • With 74 reviews counted as of September 30, the initial feedback from critics is very positive with a score of 91% for Rotten Tomatoes and seems to validate the studio’s intention to release the film as awards season approaches.
  • The film’s early international opening (where it is exclusive to theaters) went well under the circumstances of the pandemic. Dune won nearly $ 78 million in a phased overseas release (designed to get a head start on films like No time to die) for two weekends with Russia, France and Germany in the lead. The two old markets each saw Dune posted a solid 37 percent drop in second weekend sales.

    At comparable markets, the film is ahead Principle, Blade Runner 2049, and Godzilla vs. Kong.

  • With a strong IMAX footprint planned for national deployment, Dune is poised to be another healthy player in the high-end large-format space.

THE INCONVENIENTS:

  • This is another experimental hybrid version of Warner Bros. in North America. The film will be available for free to HBO Max streaming subscribers on the same day it hits theaters. This strategy has largely resulted in disappointing box office results for a series of Warner Bros. films. in recent months, although Godzilla vs. Kong – a similar large-scale cinematic image – posted respectable revenues when it was released last spring.

    Still, it’s possible that many outside of the fan base will choose to watch this movie for free at home. In addition to the tracking comparisons mentioned above, Dune tends slightly above The suicide squad right now.

  • Lynch’s 1984 film is sort of a cult classic, but it’s also notorious for its box office hiccups. Costing $ 40 million to produce at the time, this Dune only earned $ 31 million at the domestic box office and turned out to be far more specialized than expected. Note, the original Blade runner earned $ 27.6 million two years earlier.
  • It won’t be Villeneuve’s first company to reimagine a 1980s sci-fi photo, after last directing Blade Runner 2049. In September 2017, this film fell short of high box office expectations despite the return of Harrison Ford and the addition of Ryan Gosling as it made $ 92.1 million in North America and over $ 259 million in the world on a production budget of $ 150 million.
  • As the previous book and film themselves are quite specialized and have a particular appeal to men over 35, it will be important for this film to expand the audience and include more laymen via word of mouth. hear. So far, young male audiences have played a crucial role in the box office revival, but this film’s primary audience could find themselves heavily skewed on the other end of the spectrum.

    For reference, Blade Runner 2049 was out of balance with the opening weekend consisting of 71% men, 86% over 25 and 63% over 35.

  • Dune opens in a busy October market that will see Venom: let there be carnage (October 1st), No time to die (October 8), and Halloween kills (October 15) precedes its national release – to be followed by a big Marvel Studio movie, Eternals, two weeks later, on November 5. This is an unprecedented level of direct competition in a short window during the pandemic.

Long-term ticketing forecast and 2021 timeline
(as of 10/1/21)

Release date Title 3 day opening (FSS) Low / high range % change from last week Domestic Total Low / High Range % change from last week Estimated number of locations Distributer
08/10/2021 No time to die $ 70,000,000 – $ 95,000,000 + 11% $ 175,000,000 – $ 275,000,000 + 7% 4000+ MGM / United Artists Released
10/15/2021 Halloween kills $ 40,000,000 – $ 55,000,000 + 7% $ 80,000,000 – $ 110,000,000 + 6% 3,950 Universal Images
10/15/2021 The last duel $ 5,000,000 – $ 12,000,000 -15% $ 15,000,000 – $ 45,000,000 -15% 3000 Disney / 20th Century Studios
22/10/2021 Dune $ 35,000,000 – $ 45,000,000 $ 85,000,000 – $ 130,000,000 Photos of Warner Bros.
22/10/2021 The French dispatch not currently followed not currently followed Disney Pictures / Projector
22/10/2021 Ron went wrong $ 7,000,000 – $ 14,000,000 $ 40,000,000 – $ 68,000,000 Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/29/2021 Drink Disney Pictures / Projector
10/29/2021 Last night in Soho Focus Features
10/29/2021 My Hero Academia: Mission of the Heroes of the World Funimation / Toho Co. Ltd.
05/11/2021 Eternals Disney / Marvel Studios
05/11/2021 Spencer NEON / Themed studios
10/11/2021 Clifford the big red dog Paramount Pictures
12/11/2021 Belfast Focus Features
11/19/2021 go! Go on A24
11/19/2021 king richard Photos of Warner Bros.
11/19/2021 Ghostbusters: the afterlife Sony Pictures / Colombia
24/11/2021 Encanto Walt Disney Pictures
24/11/2021 Gucci House MGM / United Artists release
24/11/2021 National Champions STXfilms
24/11/2021 Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City Sony Pictures / Columbia Pictures
03/12/2021 Red rocket A24
03/12/2021 Wolf Focus Features
12/10/2021 Cyrano United Artists Released
12/10/2021 Do not seek Netflix
12/10/2021 Action violence STXfilms
12/10/2021 History of the West Side (2020) Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/17/2021 Alley of nightmares Disney Pictures / Projector
12/17/2021 Spider-Man: No Path Home Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios
12/22/2021 A newspaper for Jordan (wide expansion) Sony Pictures / Columbia Pictures
12/22/2021 The king’s man Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/22/2021 Matrix resurrections Photos of Warner Bros.
12/22/2021 Sing 2 Universal Images
12/25/2021 American Underdog: The Story of Kurt Warner Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
12/31/2021 (no outing planned)

The precise opening weekend and national total screenings are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO customers. For more information on forecasts, prices and availability, please contact us.

As always, the news cycle is constantly changing with the pandemic. Screenings are subject to change amid last minute announcements.


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